Encounter simulator: Stormtalon's Lair (normal) (2026-10-13, rerun)

The raw numbers are in the JSON file of the same name (schema bezgelor.encounter_sim.v1). All data is synthetic: five in-process bot players (tank, healer, three damage dealers) fighting each boss in a real zone instance on a test server. Commit 64505404 plus the tuning in this change.

Reproduce:

cd apps/bezgelor_world && SIM_RUNS=2 SIM_ENCOUNTERS=<ids> SIM_REPORT=<path> LIMIT_HEAVY=1 ../../scripts/limited.sh mix test test/encounter_sim/stormtalons_lair_sim_test.exs --include encounter_sim

Summary

• Bots: Warrior tank, Medic healer, Stalker, Spellslinger and Engineer, level 20, level 18-20 green quest gear, unlimited resources, 0.7 chance to step out of a telegraph whose cast gives 0.5 s or more.
• Each boss is pulled fresh in its own instance (the bosses before it are killed first when the fight needs it, e.g. Aethros before Stormtalon).
• Boss numbers are the encounter tuning in stormtalons-lair.json; cadences are guesses (docs/dungeons/stormtalons-lair.md).
• Every "Reference" figure is a guess: an estimate from the lengths and descriptions of normal-mode videos of the dungeon. Nobody timed the footage.

Before and after

First run (2026-10-12, stormtalons-lair-sim-2026-10-12.md) against this rerun on current main (which has the Kraggar fix for scripted adds and spawns without a captured level) at the old tuning, and the final tuning. Two runs per boss.

Reading the results

• The Kraggar level fix moved nothing at the old tuning: the rerun on current main differs from the first run by run-to-run noise only (GitHub #169). The 0.08 damage scale stands for Blade-Wind, Stormtalon and the minibosses.
• The bots have unlimited resources (GitHub #171), which inflates their damage. At the reference health Aethros (at its worst 0:42), Stormtalon (about a minute) and the minibosses (0:36-0:52) died much faster than their guessed reference ranges. Health was raised until the kills fall in those guessed ranges: Aethros 220,000, Stormtalon 650,000, minibosses 260,000. The Channelers drop from 30,000 to 24,000 because Blade-Wind's 2:46-3:27 was above its guessed 2-3 minutes. Retune from a new run when the resource model lands.
• Blade-Wind (2:30), Aethros (3:08-3:13), Stormtalon (3:19-3:55) and the minibosses (1:08-1:27) now sit inside the guessed ranges, with no wipe in the final runs. Stormtalon's 3:55 is at the edge of its range.
• Aethros at 260,000 and scale 0.08 (an intermediate setting) wiped once, in a run of 9 deaths, and a repeat at 220,000 and 0.06 stalled once: a pull that ran into the 10-minute limit with the boss at 24.8% and 4 players dead. At scale 0.05 the longer fight is survivable (1 and 4 deaths). A pull that stalls with dead bots instead of wiping looks like a simulator or encounter-reset gap (filed separately).
• Thunder Cross is the mechanic that hits the most players (first run); GitHub #170 asks whether its arms and the squares are sized right.
• The bots are not real characters, so the public event's history rows for them are refused by the database (a warning in the log, nothing else).
• The run was split by encounter: one test run over an hour hit the harness time limit. The tables below are Aethros and Stormtalon (final tuning) and the minibosses (from the Aethros 0.06 run; their tuning is final). Blade-Wind's per-run tables are missing (see the JSON notes); its two kills were 149.6 s and 150.7 s with no deaths.

Runs

Aethros (normal): killed in 3:13, 0 wipe(s)

Last pull, per bot:

The pull over time (every 30 s):

Mechanics that hit the group (last pull):

Aethros (normal): killed in 3:08, 0 wipe(s)

Last pull, per bot:

The pull over time (every 30 s):

Mechanics that hit the group (last pull):

Arcanist Breeze-Binder (optional, random) (normal): killed in 1:27, 0 wipe(s)

Last pull, per bot:

The pull over time (every 30 s):

Mechanics that hit the group (last pull):

Arcanist Breeze-Binder (optional, random) (normal): killed in 1:24, 0 wipe(s)

Last pull, per bot:

The pull over time (every 30 s):

Mechanics that hit the group (last pull):

Overseer Drift-Catcher (optional, random) (normal): killed in 1:08, 0 wipe(s)

Last pull, per bot:

The pull over time (every 30 s):

Mechanics that hit the group (last pull):

Overseer Drift-Catcher (optional, random) (normal): killed in 1:10, 0 wipe(s)

Last pull, per bot:

The pull over time (every 30 s):

Mechanics that hit the group (last pull):

Stormtalon (normal): killed in 3:55, 0 wipe(s)

Last pull, per bot:

The pull over time (every 30 s):

Mechanics that hit the group (last pull):

Stormtalon (normal): killed in 3:19, 0 wipe(s)

Last pull, per bot:

The pull over time (every 30 s):

Mechanics that hit the group (last pull):